Moore's Law Calculator
Transistor counts by year on Moore's pace.
What it does
Moore's observation outlived prophecy: transistor counts doubled near every two years from 2,300 in 1971 into the tens of billions. The curve priced the digital century.
The tool above takes a year. It returns the projected count with doublings and the historical pace note.
The default 2021 gives 77,175,193,600 across 25 doublings. The 1981 case gives 73,600, and 2001 gives 75,366,400.
Engineering history anchors the 4004 start with doubling commentary across nodes. Museum timelines track real chips bracketing the curve for decades.
Pace is history, not physics: economics and quantum tunneling bend recent nodes below the line. Project to 2040 here, then read foundry roadmaps.
How to use
- Type the year.
- Read transistors first.
- Read doublings beside it.
- Read the pace note last.
- Compare real chips nearby.
- Respect the 2040 cap.
Formula
- year
- Calendar year 1971 to 2040.
- count
- Transistor count projection.
IEEE history and Computer History Museum timelines anchor the 1971 Intel 4004 at 2,300 transistors with doubling observations behind the curve. Counts here project the historical pace; foundry roadmaps govern real nodes past it.
Worked example
Example: chips in 2021
Default: year 2021.
- Year: 2021, fifty years on.
- Doublings: (2021 minus 1971) / 2 = 25.
- Count: 2300 x 2^25 = 77,175,193,600.
- Check: flagship chips bracket tens of billions.
- Pace: doubling every 2 years, historical.
- Tool shows 77,175,193,600 transistors, 25 doublings, Doubling every 2 years (historical).
Reference table
| Year | Count | Doublings |
|---|---|---|
| 1971 | 2,300 | 0 |
| 1981 | 73,600 | 5 |
| 2001 | 75,366,400 | 15 |
| 2021 | 77,175,193,600 | 25 |
Limits
- Historical pace projection.
- Real nodes vary widely.
- Ends 2040.
- Counts, not speed.
Common mistakes
- Reading projection as spec.
- Extending past 2040 blindly.
- Confusing transistors with speed.
- Starting before 1971.
- Ignoring slowdown evidence.
Try it yourself
Quick checks. Answers sit tucked under each question.
Year 1981?
2,300 x 32 = 73,600 across 5 doublings.
Year 2001?
2,300 x 32768 = 75,366,400 across 15 doublings.
Year 1960?
Before 1971 predates the curve: enter 1971 to 2040.
Questions
The math?
2300 times 2 to the half years since 1971. Gordon Moore's 1965 observation, Intel named.
Real chips match?
Roughly, within an order: real chips bracket the curve through many nodes.
Law slowing?
Yes, slowing past small nodes: economics and physics bend the line this page extends.
Speed too?
No, this counts transistors. Speed, cores, and watts follow messier curves.
Start point?
Yes, 1971 Intel 4004 at 2,300 anchors the curve.
Past 2040?
No, projection ends 2040 here. Roadmaps past need foundry data.